May 2019 – Monthly Commentary

June 24, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

May 2019 We’re another month into the U.S.-China trade dispute and it appears that select economic data is softening somewhat.  Despite that, we’re reluctant to jump to conclude that economic growth is on the verge of a recession.  The most recent indicator to disappoint was the May employment report which indicated an increase of 75,000 new jobs for the month; well below the 175,000 expected.  However, there are several factors ...

April 2019 – Monthly Commentary

May 20, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

April 2019 As we’ve written for the last few years, interest rates across the yield curve are too low given the strong economic backdrop.  Testament to its sustainability, the U.S. economy has continued to grow despite the behavior of politicians on both sides of the aisle and the Atlantic Ocean.  The sharp drop in interest rates from the fourth quarter of last year through January was due in part to ...

March 2019 – Monthly Commentary

April 22, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

March 2019 Investor perception has turned with regard to fundamental economic activity and the pricing of interest rates.  The Federal Reserve has targeted the Fed Funds rate at approximately 2.42% while the yield on the 5-year Treasury note is 2.30%.  That the 5-year note yields less than the overnight rate is known as an inversion and typically a sign of an unhealthy market.  When the yield curve inverts, it indicates ...

February 2019 – Monthly Commentary

March 19, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

February 2019 It would appear that economic pundits believe that the U.S. economy is either sustainably robust or faltering and on the verge of recession.  Certainly, Central Bankers around the globe are suspiciously reassuring that economic growth is just right and in case things go awry, they stand ready and able to act.  Much as Fed Chairman Powell did in his speech last month, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi ...

January 2019 – Monthly Commentary

March 19, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

January 2019 The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yielded no rate hike and a dovish outlook for interest rates, as expected.  Chairman Powell concluded this meeting with a press conference as will be the convention following every FOMC meeting going forward.  The standard to date had been to have a press conference every other meeting.  Our guess is that he would have preferred to skip this one given ...