August 2019 – Monthly Commentary

September 17, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

August 2019 Since the interest rate cut at the end of last month, economic data has continued to suggest that the economy is growing moderately despite some trepidation in the manufacturing sector over trade tensions.  Despite that fear, services and consumption continue to drive the economy.  Moreover, with the workforce at full employment and wages rising faster than inflation, consumers are likely to continue to support the economy.  Further emboldening ...

July 2019 – Monthly Commentary

August 21, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

July 2019 The Federal Reserve lowered the overnight Fed Fund rate by 25 basis points as expected, at the conclusion of last month’s FOMC meeting.  As is the case following every FOMC meeting, the Fed Chairman gave a press conference with the goal of ensuring market participants understand the thinking of the committee.  Typically, the reporters, most of whom are fixtures in the financial media, toss the Chairman “softball” questions ...

June 2019 – Monthly Commentary

July 24, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

June 2019 Last month we discussed the sudden and dramatic shift in interest rate expectations given the weakness of the May jobs report.  We wrote about how that was not the first undershoot this year and that previous misses have been reversed in subsequent releases.  It turns out that our guess was right, as the June jobs report, which was expected to show 160,000 net new jobs was actually reported ...

May 2019 – Monthly Commentary

June 24, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

May 2019 We’re another month into the U.S.-China trade dispute and it appears that select economic data is softening somewhat.  Despite that, we’re reluctant to jump to conclude that economic growth is on the verge of a recession.  The most recent indicator to disappoint was the May employment report which indicated an increase of 75,000 new jobs for the month; well below the 175,000 expected.  However, there are several factors ...

April 2019 – Monthly Commentary

May 20, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

April 2019 As we’ve written for the last few years, interest rates across the yield curve are too low given the strong economic backdrop.  Testament to its sustainability, the U.S. economy has continued to grow despite the behavior of politicians on both sides of the aisle and the Atlantic Ocean.  The sharp drop in interest rates from the fourth quarter of last year through January was due in part to ...