July 2018 – Monthly Commentary

September 04, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

July 2018 The dog days of summer are upon us and the U.S. market has been relatively calm despite the daily barrage of news from around the globe.  That’s not to say that global macro events are not on the mind of investors.  Quite to the contrary.  Donald Trump’s trade war is making the headlines daily, the health of the European banking system continues to be a worry, and the drama of The United Kingdom’s divorce ...

June 2018 – Monthly Commentary

August 14, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

June 2018 In the days and weeks leading up to the recent imposition of tariffs on China, nervous investors sold stocks and pushed bond yields lower.  However since the tariffs went into place stock prices have risen, with the S&P 500 just ticks away from its recent high and less than 3% away from an all-time high.  Apparently, investors have chosen to look past the immediate trade rhetoric and are focusing on the coming earning season, ...

May 2018 – Monthly Commentary

August 14, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

May 2018 The bastion of calm that swept over capital markets evaporated in May, as a number of emerging market economies and their markets suffered under the strain of bad policy.  After years in financial purgatory following their 2001 default, Argentina is again facing financial strain.  The serial defaulter returned to the global bond market two years ago with a $16 billion multi-tranche deal that received $70 billion in orders.  Investor demand had grown so strong ...

April 2018 – Monthly Commentary

August 14, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

April 2018 Now that we’re well into the new year and the first quarter earnings season is almost fully behind us, it makes sense to pause and try to understand where we are in the economic cycle and what we should expect in the near term future. The most notable recent change is the stock market.  Compared to February, volatility has diminished markedly.  However, the “buy the dip” mentality that drove stock indices to ever higher levels ...

March 2018 – Monthly Commentary

April 23, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

March 2018 March has followed the pattern of the previous two months, with heightened equity market volatility creating worry for anxious investors. Despite that worry, the bond market has been a bastion of calmness with the 30-year bond trading in a relatively benign range of 3.22% to 3.00%. Given the continued strength of the U.S. economy, we had expected the bond to come under price pressure pushing the yield closer to 3.5%. That ...