March 2019 – Monthly Commentary

April 22, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

March 2019 Investor perception has turned with regard to fundamental economic activity and the pricing of interest rates.  The Federal Reserve has targeted the Fed Funds rate at approximately 2.42% while the yield on the 5-year Treasury note is 2.30%.  That the 5-year note yields less than the overnight rate is known as an inversion and typically a sign of an unhealthy market.  When the yield curve inverts, it indicates ...

February 2019 – Monthly Commentary

March 19, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

February 2019 It would appear that economic pundits believe that the U.S. economy is either sustainably robust or faltering and on the verge of recession.  Certainly, Central Bankers around the globe are suspiciously reassuring that economic growth is just right and in case things go awry, they stand ready and able to act.  Much as Fed Chairman Powell did in his speech last month, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi ...

January 2019 – Monthly Commentary

March 19, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

January 2019 The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yielded no rate hike and a dovish outlook for interest rates, as expected.  Chairman Powell concluded this meeting with a press conference as will be the convention following every FOMC meeting going forward.  The standard to date had been to have a press conference every other meeting.  Our guess is that he would have preferred to skip this one given ...

December 2018 – Monthly Commentary

January 25, 2019  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

December 2018 As we expected, the Federal Reserve lifted the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points in December and indicated that they would lift rates two more times in 2019, backing away from their forecast of more frequent rate hikes.  Also, as we expected, Fed Chair Powell gave a dovish assessment of the Fed’s view of the economy and markets.  However, that did little to calm investors, with December ...

November 2018 – Monthly Commentary

December 26, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

November 2018 As the fourth quarter began, the S&P 500 index sat just below an all-time high, with expectations that earnings would continue to surprise to the upside and Q4 GDP would again post 3% or greater growth.  But those expectations were almost immediately dashed by a trifecta of confusing news in the form of Chairman Powell backtracking on his hawkish comments from a month earlier, plunging oil prices, and ...