October 2017 – Monthly Commentary

January 22, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

October 2017 Last month marked the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, prompting us to take a look back at how the Dow Jones Industrial Average has evolved since that infamous day. Of the 30 stocks in the index at the time, Bethlehem Steel, Eastman Kodak, GM, Union Carbide, U.S. Steel, and Woolworths have all gone through bankruptcy. Some reorganized and reemerged, but most didn’t. Sears, which also was part of ...

September 2017 – Monthly Commentary

October 13, 2017  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

September 2017 Signs of excess abound in the capital markets as the ongoing emergency monetary policy supports frothiness and exuberance at every turn.  Last month, billionaire Warren Buffett commented that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow Jones Industrial Index, currently valued at 22,600, climbed to 1,000,000 in the next one hundred years.  In making that audacious prediction, Mr. Buffett seemed to be showing unbridled confidence in the stock market.  However, solving for the average return, ...

August 2017 – Monthly Commentary

September 25, 2017  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

August 2017 On August 2 the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) released, via the U.S. Treasury Department website, its roadmap for reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The TBAC is a liaison of senior members of money center banks and investment firms and the Treasury Department. The goal of the group is to keep the Treasury informed as to the thinking of the largest buyers of U.S. Government debt. Typically, the group focuses on supply and ...

July 2017 – Monthly Commentary

September 25, 2017  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

July 2017 The equity market remained a bastion of tranquility in July as the S&P 500 rallied 1.9% and the volatility index (VIX) touched an all-time low of 8.84 late in the month. A telling example of the complacency was on display in a Bloomberg TV interview. The analyst being interviewed was asked how she could offer a buy recommendation on a stock with such a lofty Price/Earnings ratio. The analyst responded that yes, the stock ...

June 2017 – Monthly Commentary

July 19, 2017  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

June 2017 We knew it had to come at some time, but the elusive question has always been when?  The question we refer to is when the European Central Bank (ECB) would finally signal that they were going to ease off of ultra-stimulative monetary policy.  At the late June press conference ECB President Mario Draghi took the first step, albeit a tiny one, and hinted that quantitative easing could be tapered at some point in the ...