May 2018 – Monthly Commentary

August 14, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

May 2018 The bastion of calm that swept over capital markets evaporated in May, as a number of emerging market economies and their markets suffered under the strain of bad policy.  After years in financial purgatory following their 2001 default, Argentina is again facing financial strain.  The serial defaulter returned to the global bond market two years ago with a $16 billion multi-tranche deal that received $70 billion in orders.  Investor demand had grown so strong ...

April 2018 – Monthly Commentary

August 14, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

April 2018 Now that we’re well into the new year and the first quarter earnings season is almost fully behind us, it makes sense to pause and try to understand where we are in the economic cycle and what we should expect in the near term future. The most notable recent change is the stock market.  Compared to February, volatility has diminished markedly.  However, the “buy the dip” mentality that drove stock indices to ever higher levels ...

March 2018 – Monthly Commentary

April 23, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

March 2018 March has followed the pattern of the previous two months, with heightened equity market volatility creating worry for anxious investors. Despite that worry, the bond market has been a bastion of calmness with the 30-year bond trading in a relatively benign range of 3.22% to 3.00%. Given the continued strength of the U.S. economy, we had expected the bond to come under price pressure pushing the yield closer to 3.5%. That ...

February 2018 – Monthly Commentary

April 23, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

February 2018 Six weeks ago, as we closed out January, the S&P 500 Index settled just below its all time high. Financial pundits at the time were saying that a healthy correction would be good for the market. The term healthy correction has always seemed an oxymoron. How can a decrease in the value of one’s investment portfolio be described as healthy? Yet, the term has been in the lexicon of Wall Street for as long as traders have ...

January 2018 – Monthly Commentary

February 23, 2018  |   Monthly Commentary   |     |   0 Comment

January 2018 The Federal Reserve, in managing the U.S. economy, is tasked with the dual mandate of ensuring full employment and stable inflation. The mandate is somewhat contradictory in that at full employment the tight labor force is likely to force wages higher which, in turn, risks pushing the overall level of inflation higher. That is, of course, if the numbers accurately reflect the actual rate of inflation, which we regularly argue is not ...