October 2024 – Monthly Commentary

With the distraction of the contentious Presidential campaign finally behind us, traders and investors have refocused on what policies the new President will pursue. The expectation had been that the final vote tally would take days, if not weeks to be announced. Instead, it was announced early the next morning that Donald Trump would be making a second appearance as POTUS. The capital markets have interpreted the results as good news, with S&P 500 index punching through 6,000 and the U.S. dollar reversing the swoon it had been in since May of this year. The irony is that the yield curve flattened, with short maturities rising in yield. The yield-to-maturity of the 2-year note has risen 75 basis points from the low despite the 75 basis points of overnight rate cuts in the last two months. Trump has vowed to energize the economy with the double edge sword of economic stimulus and regulatory rollback.