January 2025 Monthly Commentary
Since the first of January, fixed income portfolio managers have been tasked with the challenge of how to position their portfolios for the coming year. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) issued by the Federal Reserve members in September were out of date almost immediately, as economic growth reaccelerated. Concurrent with that reacceleration, the stock market roared higher at the prospect of President Trump rolling back business-hampering regulation and enacting pro-growth policies. By the December FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve was tacitly signaling their error. With that change, market participants are now expecting a 25-basis point cut by this summer and a 50% chance of another 25 basis-point cut by the end of this year.