February 2026 – Monthly Commentary
The capital markets have been upended since the start of the war with Iran. The price of oil has skyrocketed, dragging the price of bonds sharply lower. At the time of this writing, the 2-year note is trading at 3.74% yield to maturity, the highest since last November. Similarly, the yield-to-maturity of the 30-year bond has risen to 4.87%; below the 4.92% touched in January, but 25 basis points above where it started the month. The logic for the rise in interest rates is speculation that the spike in the cost of oil is going to filter through to the CPI making it impossible for the Fed to cut rates further.
