March 2026 – Monthly Commentary

As the war with Iran drags on and the tactics seem evermore chaotic, the capital markets are normalizing after the extreme volatility that gripped them six weeks ago. The two-year note is trading at 3.79%, well below the 3.99% touched at the start of the conflict and the 2-year/30-year yield curve stands at 111 basis-points, midway between the 94 – 140 basis point range this year. Equally surprising is the equity market. The S&P 500 which had “corrected” by 10% at the end of March and had many market watchers forecasting a prolonged bear market has now retraced nearly all of that loss.