The equity market continues to rally to new highs as consumer confidence has been buffeted by the 250th anniversary of the United States and the 38 days of the World Cup soccer tournament. The rally has continued despite new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s frustrating abandonment of the full disclosure policies of the last three Fed chiefs. Ignoring his repeated hawkish calls and specifically citing the overnight Fed Funds rate as the Fed’s main policy tool, he has yet to raise that rate. We estimate the probability of the committee hiking in September is about 50 percent.