To put in trading desk parlance, we were “Unched” this week! That pretty well sums up trading activity. The 2-year note was 9-basis points higher in yield and the 30-year bond also drifted higher, but only by 5-basis points. The S&P 500 traded lower by less than 1%. Economic activity, for the most part, came right on the screws, with housing starts and existing home sales reports in line with forecasts.

Following the Federal Reserve-induced banking crisis that gripped the capital markets last month, much debate has focused on the next course of action. Clearly, the Fed’s sharp and relentless rise in interest rates, and negligence of its regulatory responsibility contributed to the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. From that, an argument can be made that they should pause from any additional rate hikes to evaluate their action to date. If for no reason other than to let any banks that extended duration too soon generate some net interest income. However, an equally persuasive argument is that the inflation mentality is starting to become entrenched. From our perspective, there were three big hurdles to overcome to justify raising rates at the next meeting, and all of them have flashed a green light for the Fed. The employment report, the consumer price index, and the producer price index all portrayed an economy that is slowing, but by no means is falling off a cliff. That should be enough to give them room for at least another 25-basis point hike.

The flight to quality abated from the panic of mid-March, but there is a tremendous amount of money that has gone to cash. The Fed’s overnight reverse repo (managers lend to Fed, the Fed pays interest) attracted its 3rd highest total since inception – $2.4 trillion. Money Market Fund assets swelled to a record of $5 trillion. The dash for cash resulted in outsized moves higher in price for bonds and notes in the Front end. For example, the one month bill (4/11/23 maturity) was trading at 4.58% on March 9th – just before SVB meltdown. The same Bill (4/11s) traded as low as 3.55% on March 27th , and is now closing today at 4.77% as the worst fears of continued bank contagion have subsided.

Anyone with children under 12 years-old understands the concept of the participation trophy (or has at least watched the Bluey Episode titled “Pass the Parcel”). In an effort to make sure that all participants feel good about themselves, everyone gets a trophy. For the younger kids, quite often the parents discourage keeping score or even declaring a winner. This week felt like it was trophy day for the banking system. The first trophy went to Silicon Valley bank for their mismanagement of their hold-to-maturity book, by establishing a duration that suffered a significant loss of value from the Fed’s draconian rate hikes to date. The FDIC, which guarantees deposits up to $250,000, on Sunday evening announced that the guarantee would be extend to all depositors regardless of the size of their deposit. As has been communicated, many of the deposits were the working capital of promising, albeit not yet profitable, start-ups. Start-ups that should their break-through prove successful, hold the winning lottery ticket to hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.