February 2016 Since the Federal Reserve ended quantitative easing in October 2014, the capital markets have become much more volatile and correlations among asset classes have risen. That condition has further intensified since the first rate hike in December. We fully expected a rise in volatility as monetary policy became less expansionary, but have been […]
January 2016 Market volatility erupted in the first few trading days of the New Year and continued into early February. By the third week of January, the S&P 500 was down by nearly 10% before reversing course and erasing about half of those losses. Reacting to the panic, investors sold risky assets and bought Treasury […]
December 2015 As we expected, December was a tumultuous month for the capital markets. The FOMC finally raised interest rates and in the days following the move there were three obvious outcomes. First, the Fed was successful in raising the Fed Funds rate. We’ve written in the past about our concern over the committee’s ability […]
November 2015 Conditions are now in place for the Federal Reserve to finally raise interest rates at the December 16th meeting. On Friday, the BLS released the second consecutive robust jobs report, after softer reports for August and September. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5%, and wages are now rising at approximately a 2.3% […]
October 2015 Following two consecutive months of disappointment, the October employment report far exceeded expectations, adding 271,000 for the period. With the big addition, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% and could fall below that measure as early as next month. Reflecting the tightening of the labor force, average hourly earnings rose 2.5% year-over-year, which […]
September 2015 While forecasters had handicapped the probability of a rate hike at the September 17th FOMC meeting at less than 50%, it seems that the expectation was much higher. On the back of the unchanged rate and the conciliatory tone of the Chair at the post-meeting press conference, stocks plunged around the globe as […]
As written in last month’s update, we feared the Chinese monetary authorities risked losing investor confidence due to their manipulation of the capital markets. That fear came to pass in August and it wasn’t limited solely to the Chinese market. With investors grappling with whether the Federal Reserve would raise overnight rates in September, price […]
Michael Kastner, principal at Halyard Asset Management, investigates the impact that prohibiting companies from buying their own equity shares would have on the markets Private Asset Management Magazine – August 2015.
July 2015 The capital markets continued to demonstrate heightened volatility as investor appetite for risk vacillated between insatiable and intolerant. Given the surprisingly hawkish tone of the July Federal Open Market Committee statement, we were surprised that the news took a back seat to the plunge in Chinese stocks. The Chinese stock market had been […]
The bond market was under selling pressure for most of June as the economic data released during the month was unequivocally positive. On the back of that, stock prices soared and interest rates drifted higher. Reacting to the upturn in economic activity, Fed Chair Yellen, at the post Open Market Committee meeting, said that the […]