February 2017 Economic data released last month was solidly robust, with manufacturing continuing its recent expansion, non-farm payrolls surging, initial unemployment insurance claims touching a 17-year low, and consumer confidence continuing to hit post-crisis highs. Even the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index outlook skyrocketed to 24.5. That measure is a diffusion index and indicates that a […]
January 2017 The election of Donald Trump to President of the United States continues to pose challenges to forecasting and investing in the capital markets. Arguably, the world order has been turned on its head in ways that could not have been predicted. The prevailing view prior to the election was that the European economy […]
December 2016 The post-election euphoria in the stock market continued in December, lifting indices to just below all-time record highs. The catalyst for the buying has been investor expectations of a more favorable business environment and, with it, accelerated profit growth. Bond investors, on the other hand, have been grappling back and forth on President […]
November 2016 The landscape for fixed income changed dramatically with Donald Trump’s election victory. While polling was close going into the election, the market seemingly priced-in a Clinton victory and a continuation of the steady, albeit modest economic growth of the Obama Presidency. Instead, investors reacted swiftly to the change in leadership concluding that Trump’s […]
October 2016 Prior to the release of the October employment report, Bloomberg television welcomed a prominent economics professor to the show, asking him to give his first impression of the then soon to be released economic data. During their idle chatter prior to the release, the professor reminded viewers that years back, Jack Welsh, the […]
September 2016 To state the obvious, capital markets are complicated and susceptible to occasional problems related to supply and demand imbalances. Typically, the problems become magnified at quarter-end, and the just-ended quarter was especially so. With the October 14th money market reform deadline looming, money funds continued to flood the market with corporate and municipal […]
August 2016 With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet on September 21st, investors find themselves debating, yet again, whether or not the Fed will raise short term interest rates. Recall, we were in a similar situation exactly one year ago. Chair Yellen’s comments at last month’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming gathering of Central Bankers […]
Michael Kastner, Halyard Asset Management, and Kathleen Gaffney, Eaton Vanceshares, share their take on bonds and interest rates following Doubleline Jeff Gundlach saying it’s time to be defensive on bonds. Is it time to be defensive on bonds? http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000550030
July 2016 Summer finally caught up with the bond market in July with the 10-year Treasury note virtually unchanged for the month. The benign backdrop was beneficial for the S&P 500, as the index finally broke to a new all time high, closing the month at 2,174. That rally came amid confounding economic data. Favorably, […]
June 2016 The madness continued in June as markets convulsed on economic and political surprises. As the month began, investors were debating whether the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its mid-month meeting, with committee members seeming to prepare investors for an imminent rate hike. That view quickly reversed with the release of the May […]