August 2016 With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet on September 21st, investors find themselves debating, yet again, whether or not the Fed will raise short term interest rates. Recall, we were in a similar situation exactly one year ago. Chair Yellen’s comments at last month’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming gathering of Central Bankers […]
Michael Kastner, Halyard Asset Management, and Kathleen Gaffney, Eaton Vanceshares, share their take on bonds and interest rates following Doubleline Jeff Gundlach saying it’s time to be defensive on bonds. Is it time to be defensive on bonds? http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000550030
July 2016 Summer finally caught up with the bond market in July with the 10-year Treasury note virtually unchanged for the month. The benign backdrop was beneficial for the S&P 500, as the index finally broke to a new all time high, closing the month at 2,174. That rally came amid confounding economic data. Favorably, […]
June 2016 The madness continued in June as markets convulsed on economic and political surprises. As the month began, investors were debating whether the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its mid-month meeting, with committee members seeming to prepare investors for an imminent rate hike. That view quickly reversed with the release of the May […]
May 2016 Investors were left bewildered with the release of the employment report on June 3 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a paltry 38,000 jobs in May, far below the 160,000 new jobs economists had been expecting. Adding to the disappointment was the 37,000 downward revision to the prior […]
April 2016 Central Bankers continue to confound markets with their contradictory statements and unconventional monetary policies. The European Central Bank recently decided to pay banks to borrow Euros and use that cash to lend to borrowers. ECB Chairman Draghi vows to do whatever it takes to propel the European economy to growth, and that includes […]
March 2016 The first quarter of 2016 was dissimilar to the first quarter of last year in many ways, except that both periods felt as though the U.S. was at risk of slipping into recession. Last year’s dreadful winter weather brought economic activity to a standstill in the Northeast and the ongoing West Coast Port […]
February 2016 Since the Federal Reserve ended quantitative easing in October 2014, the capital markets have become much more volatile and correlations among asset classes have risen. That condition has further intensified since the first rate hike in December. We fully expected a rise in volatility as monetary policy became less expansionary, but have been […]
January 2016 Market volatility erupted in the first few trading days of the New Year and continued into early February. By the third week of January, the S&P 500 was down by nearly 10% before reversing course and erasing about half of those losses. Reacting to the panic, investors sold risky assets and bought Treasury […]
December 2015 As we expected, December was a tumultuous month for the capital markets. The FOMC finally raised interest rates and in the days following the move there were three obvious outcomes. First, the Fed was successful in raising the Fed Funds rate. We’ve written in the past about our concern over the committee’s ability […]