January 2014 The capital markets have vacillated wildly during the first six weeks of 2014. Investors dumped equities in January in what appeared to be a calendar-related attempt to lock in the outsized gains of 2013. As the selling swelled, so did the price of U.S. Treasury bonds. For the month, the yield-to-maturity of the […]
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“Stocks have been under pressure this month and there is a feeling that as goes January, so goes the year,” says Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. “I think both stocks and bonds are getting it wrong here, yields should be higher and I suspect investors like last year will be rewarded for […]
“It’s a contrarian play out of the gate as the year begins,” said Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. “The change in the calendar can be a good time to make portfolio changes.” US investors begin 2014 with contrarian bets
With an acknowledgment that economic activity has consistently strengthened since the third quarter, Fed Chairman Bernanke announced at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that the Federal Reserve would begin to reduce emergency quantitative easing commencing in January. Moreover, he said the FOMC expects quantitative easing to be fully concluded by the end […]
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“For the time being the Fed is doing a good job with its forward guidance but if the economy cranks up, they will look foolish saying rates will stay low for longer,” says Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. “No matter what the Fed may say, the market will price in a closer […]
November 2013 The barrage of better than expected economic data witnessed in October continued through November and into the early days of December. With the improvement in growth, investor confidence has risen markedly from the doom and gloom days of the government shutdown. Reflecting the improved confidence, bond prices fell off and equity markets rallied. […]
Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management, plays down the likelihood of a taper decision next week but adds: “The Fed has been so wishy-washy about the taper this year, you can’t rule out a December taper.” Investors take Fed taper fever in their stride
“The current rally has robbed a bit of next year’s performance,” says Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. Mr Kastner says: “We seem to have moved from investing under sensible valuations to one of the greater fool theory, hoping there is another buyer willing to pay a higher price at these extended levels.” […]