It’s a paradox that as we wind down this very difficult year in which the pandemic ravaged so much of our day-to-day lives that the capital markets should close out the year on such a quiet note.  The bond market continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s open market buying and we have no expectation that the Fed will reduce their purchases anytime soon.  That’s especially the case given the upward pressure investors have put on 10-year Treasury note yields since early December.  The Fed continues to espouse the no inflation rhetoric citing government measures that show inflation continues to run below 2% in aggregate.  But we don’t subscribe to that view given the upwardly biased pricing we see in everyday goods and services.  Their desire to keep monetary policy excessively loose continues to benefit riskier assets as witnessed in equity prices and credit spreads. 

The bond market was little changed in September as investors grappled with continued virus uncertainty and traders with school-aged children tried to figure out the logistics of educating their young.  The latter issue made for uneven liquidity during the month which may have factored into the performance of the stock market.  For the month, the S&P 500 was down -3.91% breaking the string of consecutive positive months that extend back to April.  The performance of the bond market for the month was lackluster with the 10-year Treasury Note falling 1.5 basis points for the month.  

This month, as previously announced, Fidelity will close their Prime money market fund after the fund suffered during the illiquidity of the Corona virus-inspired volatility experienced in March of this year.  We speculated that the decision was a business one made out of the preponderance of risk to reputation had the company been forced to support the fund.  However, we viewed the action as a one-off decision, and not one that would impact the entire industry.  It turns out that the risk posed by Prime money market funds has been on the radar of the Federal Reserve for some time.  The Fed is concerned that the Prime mutual fund structure represents a shadow bank.  The term shadow bank refers to an unregulated structure that has similarities to a bank.  The Federal Reserve tightly regulates the banking system and if they deem the money markets as a shadow bank, they are de facto indicating that they can’t control it.

May 2020 The Reserve Cash Management composite continued to enjoy the benefit of spread tightening in May, generating a total return net of fees of 0.36%.  The characteristics of the composite changed little from the prior month and the average credit rate is A+. The Federal Reserve executed their lender of last resort function brilliantly.  […]

March 2020 Since we penned our last monthly update, the unthinkable has come to pass.  The Coronavirus death toll, which just a month ago seemed an abstract concern, has come to cripple the daily activities of the entire world.  Social distancing, face mask demand, shortages of staples such as paper goods, pasta, and flour have […]