August 2017 On August 2 the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) released, via the U.S. Treasury Department website, its roadmap for reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The TBAC is a liaison of senior members of money center banks and investment firms and the Treasury Department. The goal of the group is to keep the […]
July 2017 The equity market remained a bastion of tranquility in July as the S&P 500 rallied 1.9% and the volatility index (VIX) touched an all-time low of 8.84 late in the month. A telling example of the complacency was on display in a Bloomberg TV interview. The analyst being interviewed was asked how she […]
June 2017 We knew it had to come at some time, but the elusive question has always been when? The question we refer to is when the European Central Bank (ECB) would finally signal that they were going to ease off of ultra-stimulative monetary policy. At the late June press conference ECB President Mario Draghi […]
May 2017 We’ve written on several occasions about the robust job market and the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) served to further bolster that fact. JOLTS represents the inverse of the unemployment report in that it measures the number of unfilled jobs in the economy. Since touching a low of on […]
April 2017 Last month the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at a 0.7% annualized rate, below consensus forecast of 1.0%. Much was made in the media that such anemic growth is an indication that the economy is at risk of tipping into recession. It seems like that proclamation is made this time […]
March 2017 The Federal Reserve didn’t disappoint last month, delivering the third rate hike of this cycle, pushing the overnight Fed Funds rate to 0.90%. However, at the post-meeting press conference Chair Yellen delivered a “wishy washy” assessment of the economy which did little to instill fear in the bond market. In fact, instead of […]
ARCM Press Release (AD-040317)+
February 2017 Economic data released last month was solidly robust, with manufacturing continuing its recent expansion, non-farm payrolls surging, initial unemployment insurance claims touching a 17-year low, and consumer confidence continuing to hit post-crisis highs. Even the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index outlook skyrocketed to 24.5. That measure is a diffusion index and indicates that a […]
January 2017 The election of Donald Trump to President of the United States continues to pose challenges to forecasting and investing in the capital markets. Arguably, the world order has been turned on its head in ways that could not have been predicted. The prevailing view prior to the election was that the European economy […]
December 2016 The post-election euphoria in the stock market continued in December, lifting indices to just below all-time record highs. The catalyst for the buying has been investor expectations of a more favorable business environment and, with it, accelerated profit growth. Bond investors, on the other hand, have been grappling back and forth on President […]