Way back in July we wrote that the BLS non-farm payroll report told a far different story than the private ADP employment report, with the former quadrupling the latter. That situation has risen again, only in reverse. The ADP report showed tepid job growth of 89,000 in September while the BLS reported 336,000 for the period, double the number expected. Moreover, the revision of the prior two months added another 119,000 jobs to the economy. While excellent news for the economy it’s likely to put another Fed rate hike back into play at the November 1st meeting. That may not be necessary as Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion article this week. He points out that while the Fed Funds rate is 0.5% higher since mid-May, the 10-year note yield, which is the benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing is 1.4% higher, and that is going to cause a significant bite to the economy. We whole-heartedly agree that both are going to slow the economy. Warsh correctly states that the 10-year is the benchmark for housing, but the short-term rate is the benchmark for bank debt, which typically is lower rated and carries a floating rate; to put it plainly, rising short rates are hurting lower-rated credits.

The FOMC left the Fed Funds lending rate unchanged, as was widely expected, and hinted there could be one more rate hike later this year. According to their interest rate graphic, the DOT plot, the committee anticipates another 0.25% rate hike later this year followed by a 0.50% rate cut in 2024. However next year’s expectation is the median forecast with committee members’ expectations running from 4.5% to 5.75%. The individual forecasts for 2025 are even more dispersed, ranging from 3.0% to 5.75%. In short, “higher for longer!” At the post-meeting press conference Chairman Powell was upbeat on the current state of the economy which leads us to conclude that he has become one of the more hawkish committee members.

We wrote last week that the release of the consumer and producer price indices, retail sales and the Michigan surveys would be a litmus test for the Fed’s rate decision later this month. Unfortunately, the releases had a little something for everyone and didn’t offer definitive visibility on the outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting.

As expected, consumer prices rose in August, rising more than consensus expectation. The year-over-year measure of CPI registered 3.7%, up from 3.2% last month, but the core CPI for the same period fell from 4.7% to 4.3%. That’s far from the Fed’s 2% target but the anecdotal slowing in the economy is likely enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines at the September 20th FOMC meeting, but not enough call the current monetary policy the peak

Despite the muted volatility of the last unofficial week of summer, economic data released this week will likely keep the Fed on the sidelines later this month. The data was heavily focused on the labor market and the releases show a slowing in hiring. The Job openings measure (JOLTS) has plunged in the last wo months, falling from 9.6 million available and unfilled jobs to 8.8 million and well below the 12 million unfilled jobs touched last spring. Simultaneous with the JOLTS release, the conference board consumer confidence index fell from 114.0 to 106.1 as the uptick in confidence witnessed last month vanished.

Retail Sales for July rose 1.0% over the previous month, much higher than the 0.4% that was expected, although pundits attributed the upside surprise to the Amazon Prime day which was hosted mid-month. The worry is that those sales pulled forward future sales and there will be a giveback in August and September. Looking back on the Prime Day effect on monthly retail sales shows no pattern of an uptick in the month of the sale and no pattern of a drop off in sales in the following month so we caution against assuming retail sales will drop in September and/or August.