As was expected, the Fed raised the overnight lending rate corridor by 75 basis points, to 3.0%-3.25% and in decidedly hawkish post-meeting press conference, the Chairman signaled that they are not yet close a peak in the rate. It was communicated that Fed funds would likely end the year at 4.25%. That news rocked the Treasury market with the 2-year note closing the week 32 basis points higher at 4.19%, just off the intraweek high of 4.25%. The yield curve further inverted, closing at a -57 basis points, just a shade below the -75 basis points touched in May 2000.

With regard to the Fed’s action on overnight rates, our plan was to watch how consumers reacted to the July rate hike as summer progressed. We expected that high gas prices along with broad based inflation would slow consumer demand enough that the Fed would, at the very least, moderate further rate hikes, possibly even pause for a meeting or two. Instead, the Fed, via the Wall Street Journal, communicated this week that another 75-basis point hike is likely when it meets on September 21st. The various members of the Open Market Committee have all aligned as hawkish and have left open the possibility of another 75-basis point at the November meeting. That would push the overnight corridor to 3.75% to 4.00% by November 2nd. In previous communications the Fed suggested that the target rate was 3.5%, so 4% would be somewhat restrictive.

The economic data this week continued to portray a deceleration in the economy, but the most anticipated highlight was Chairman Powel’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. We’ve always had a distaste for the symposium. We view it as a Davos-like affair, attended by an elite group that considers themselves above their constituents. To us, that sends the wrong message about the mission of the Central Bank. Especially given the mess the Federal Reserve has created with excessively easy monetary policy.

We’d describe the speech as being saccharine-like in the in description of the current inflationary impulse. The speech didn’t follow the post-FOMC press conference structure in which a question & answer period followed. Because of that, there were whispers that Powell would offer a mea culpa to the mess that he oversaw, but that was not to be. Instead, he painted a “Pollyanna” picture of the current state of affairs. Of that, there were 3 “jaw dropping” quotes that we need to bring to your attention. They are, in chronological order of their mention in the speech, “The absence so far of broad-based inflation pressures,” “longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation…suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory,” and finally, “Today we see little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation.”

The doldrums are finally upon us! Last Friday’s strong employment report assured worried investors that two straight quarters of economic contraction wouldn’t result in a “hard landing” and this week’s CPI offered hope that the inflation impulse has passed. With that, investors can relaxed and enjoy the last few weeks of summer.

The 0.00% monthly change in inflation was a welcome reprieve from what we’ve witnessed for nearly two years now. But we’re hesitant to declare victory in the Fed’s war on inflation. There’s still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system and the Fed’s quantitative tightening has been slow to drain the excess. The Fed’s reverse repo operation, the de facto add-on to the Treasury Bill market, totaled $2.199 trillion at Thursday’s operation, just a few billion below the peak reached earlier this year. And the T-Bill market itself continues to flash warning signs, with yield levels well below the overnight rate and bid/ask spreads of as much as 11 basis points, in some cases. Raising interest rates will slow some interest sensitive sectors, such as home and automobile sales, but the Fed needs to drain liquidity and they’ve barely scratched the surface.