Employment Growth on Sustainable Path

Below is a chart, we think you might find interesting.   We plot the total number of employees counted in the non-farm payroll survey (left scale 000s) and the number of Job openings (right scale, 000s) as tracked by the BLS’ JOLTs survey.

Key observations:

  • Number of Job openings has surpassed last previous peak
  • Number of employees on the non-farm survey has surpassed the previous peak (when we were in the midst of a housing and construction bubble)
  • Rate of growth in non-farm payroll growth did slow in 2013 – In our opinion reflecting fiscal policies, the roll out of Obamacare, and the continuation of extended unemployment benefits.

o   As those policy effects fade, non-farm payroll growth re-accelerated in 2014

  • Job openings show continued payroll growth

Payroll Chart