February 2015 In a polar opposite of the scorching rally witnessed in January, 30-year bond yields soared last month, rising 50 basis points in the first three weeks before settling 43 bps higher. The change in the bullish tone of the market was entirely attributable to the employment report. Naysayers had been ignoring the robust […]
January 2015 The ad hoc monetary policy of the Global Central Banks and their “beggar thy neighbor” currency policies turned downright bizarre in January resulting in a sharp and unexpected rally in bond prices. On the morning of January 14th, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the capital markets by abandoning its exchange peg against […]
“Rates are way too low and investors have made a mistake in thinking the Fed would tighten policy at the end of this year or in 2016,” said Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. “We are going to see investors sell short-dated bond holdings and interest rates will move higher as they come […]
“Volatility always increases at the start of the year, but this time, we are really seeing people buying into the US bond market on the assumption benchmark rates will stay very low until at least 2016,” said Michael Kastner, a managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. Mr Kastner said such “aggressive” bond buying was “risky”. […]
Michael Kastner, principal at Halyard Asset Management, says the benefits of cheaper oil prices will more than offset a shakeout for the energy industry. “We still expect the Fed will raise rates and we could be at 1 per cent by the end of the year,” says Mr Kastner. Deflation fears blur interest rate outlook
December 2014 As we expected, volatility remained elevated in December despite holiday-abbreviated trading. As 2014 came to a close, investors were decidedly at odds over the growth prospects for the economy and the risk and reward inherent in the capital markets. The growth bulls, with whom we include ourselves, believe that evidence abounds that growth […]
November 2014 November witnessed a barrage of better than expected economic data that ordinarily would have pushed interest rates higher. Instead, rates fell as bond prices rallied. In evaluating what went wrong, the obvious culprit is our misjudgment of the demand for U.S. Government securities. We anticipated that the steadily improving economic backdrop would have […]
“The junk bond market is having a hard time and the pressure will continue,” said Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. “There are no real buyers right now and mutual funds will keep seeing redemptions.” US energy junk debt sell-off spreads
Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management, said a further fall in the oil price raises the prospect of more underperformance of junk-rated debt, to the detriment of the broader market. “In fixed income, once you can no longer quantify risk versus return, you head for the exit,” said Mr Kastner. With junk rated […]
“Bankers want to push deals and issuers are looking to take advantage of lower yields,” said Michael Kastner, managing principal at Halyard Asset Management. He expected a flurry of deals before the middle of December, though investors had become more discerning about credit risk, he said. “Corporate deals are not getting done as easily as […]