Halyard’s Weekly Wrap – 09-17-21

Economic data this week offered something for everyone. For those seeing the uptick in inflation as transitory, the Consumer Price Index data was not as bad as feared. The month-over-month CPI fell from 0.5% in July to 0.3% in August; arguably an improving trend, but still rising at an above target pace. The year-over-year rate also improved marginally falling from 5.4% in July to 5.3% in August. Again, right direction but still alarmingly high.

Also of note this week was initial jobless claims, but not because of the slight rise in applications. In the details of the report it was noted that Pandemic Unemployment assistance plunged to 28,456 from 94,638 the prior week and 675,632 the prior year. Some pundits, us included, believe that the additional assistance is keeping otherwise healthy, employable workers off the job. With that , we believe the improvement will bode well for job growth in the coming months.

Bond market activity remained benign. The ten-year Treasury note is 2 basis points higher from when it closed last week. Similarly, the S&P 500 slipped less than 1% for the week, with most of that downward price action taking place on Friday.

Looking to next week, the FOMC will release their rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. All eyes will be focused on tapering. While several members have been publicly vocal about commencing sooner rather than later we still think it’s possible they push the discussion out another month.